Boston Celtics fans have probably felt like this in the past, the way Heat fans are feeling right now, on NBA Draft lottery day.
A little bit of excitement tempered by a stomach quivering with uneasiness, all of it overpowered by a nervous energy that can't quite wait until
8 p.m. Tuesday to find out the fate of the franchise.
Can't they just tell us already!
The Heat will hold one of the most awkward gatherings ever at AmericanAirlines Arena. Two hours of prelottery events all building up to one moment in which Heat fans will either shout ''Boo-Yah!'' or just stop at ``Boo.''
New head coach Erik Spoelstra will be there, either knowing that he can start his coaching career with the best backcourt in the league (Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose, aka Mini-Wade) or preparing to go through an entire summer hoping Pat Riley makes the right decisions so his first season leading the Heat won't be a repeat disaster of Riley's final one.
In reality, though, lottery day isn't worth all this angst and agony.
It provides order and sets fans' expectations, but it doesn't offer a clear view of the future. Rarely do these numbered ping-pong balls provide the clarity of crystal ones, no matter how badly fans want to think otherwise.
Consider the expectations Heat followers will have if Miami nabs one of the top two picks in the draft. Most Heat fans would probably assume that combining either Rose or Michael Beasley to a healthy Wade and Shawn Marion easily has the makings of a playoff team -- especially in an Eastern Conference in which the Atlanta Hawks, of all teams, can take a 66-victory Celtics team to a seventh game.
WHAT THE PAST SAYS
But history doesn't exactly agree.
In this decade alone, only two teams that drafted a top-two pick have turned that into a playoff appearance the following year. The Bucks did it the season after selecting Andrew Bogut, but that was a 40-win Bucks team that went into the playoffs as a hopeless eighth seed, and it didn't exactly inspire thoughts of a Milwaukee basketball renaissance.
The other team was the Toronto Raptors after picking No. 1 in 2006. But that draft pick was big-man project Andrea Bargnani, who started all of two games and made nothing near the impact the Heat would expect from its top-two pick.
The teams that select that high and are asking a lot from that pick tend to be disappointed -- at least with the swiftness of the turnaround. The Rockets didn't even make the playoffs the year after drafting Yao Ming, and that was with a solid, established, backcourt of Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley already in place.
The Nuggets made the playoffs after picking a top-two talent in Carmelo Anthony (Denver must still owe the Pistons millions for taking Darko Milicic at No. 2 that year), but they nearly changed their entire roster to adjust to Anthony, and it's assumed the Heat will remain with the same core and simply add complementary pieces this summer.
So no matter how sky-high the expectations will rocket (that is, compared with 15 victories), even Wade has cautioned against predicting an immediate resurgence to Eastern Conference elite.
But asking Miami fans to be patient is like asking Bill Parcells to appreciate ballroom dancing. It's probably not going to happen.
Riley, not exactly the patient type, has said he can envision a quick turnaround. That can only translate into something like the Heat's 2003-04 turnaround, when a 25-win team the year before turned into an Eastern Conference semifinalist.
So what's the best model to follow? How about the Portland Trail Blazers?
They didn't make the playoffs this year, but it's easy to assume they would have reached the postseason had No. 1 pick Greg Oden actually played in his rookie season.
That formula featured a young star. Wade is still considered young, right?
It included a good supporting cast in place. Marion, Udonis Haslem and a mid-level free agent signee would match that, right?
And, of course, a top pick that makes a significant impact right away. Beasley or Rose won't be this year's version of Marvin Williams or Jay Williams, right?
HOPE FLOATS
So there is reason to believe the Heat can achieve the immediate revival with a little luck on lottery day.
The past just happens to say otherwise. So the event probably shouldn't be this nerve-wracking. The anxiety should be distributed more evenly, perhaps directed at Wade's rehabilitation work in Chicago or toward July 1, when we find out who, exactly, will be available in free agency.
The NBA's lottery system might set up this unfair, overly dramatic moment -- but there really is no sense losing your lunch over it.
